Rivers are naturally dynamic systems whose courses and floodplains can change gradually over time or rapidly during major floods, and climate change has significantly increased the frequency and intensity of such events in Pakistan. According to EM-DAT, the country has faced 89 flood events in the last 25 years, with impacts becoming more severe due to increasing urban expansion and development within active riverbeds and floodplains. Using satellite-based monitoring, SUPARCO provides continuous assessments of river behavior and surrounding land use, supporting informed decision-making for flood risk reduction and climate-resilient development.
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Tracking Waterways Over Time
Regular satellite-based mapping to observe how rivers and streams change their paths, width, and shape over time.
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Identifying Built-up Sprawl Hotspots
Detecting areas where houses, farms, or infrastructure have expanded into riverbeds or floodplains using before-and-after satellite imagery, including confirmation of cleared areas where structures have been removed.
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Monitoring River Dynamics
Observing long-term shifts in river channels, bank erosion, and sediment deposition to understand river behavior.
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River Erosion and Deposition Modelling
Identifying zones where rivers are likely to erode surrounding land or deposit sediment using geomorphological and hydrological models.
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Probabilistic Flood Hazard Modelling
Creating flood-risk maps based on multiple flood scenarios to define floodplains, risk zones, and safe areas for planning and mitigation.
Indus River dynamics along Larkana city concise
Evidences of Built-up Sprawl in River Bed / Flood Plains
Evidence from Neelam River:Built-Up Sprawl evidence at Neelam River tributary
Uncontrolled urban expansion along Tributary of Neelam River in the vicinity of Muzaffarabad city, AJK, has considerably increased the flood risk. Satellite images acquired in 2002 and 2023(source: google earth imagery) show how construction along the stream has narrowed the breathing space of the stream increasing the flood risk during extreme events. This man-made disaster, not just a natural one, highlights the urgent need for government policies to enforce no-build zones and relocate at-risk structures.
Evidence of Non-conforming built-up expansion along natural stream in Gilgit
A comparison of the 2013 and 2023 satellite images clearly reveals the rapid and largely uncontrolled expansion of settlements along a natural stream near Gilgit City. This stream is fed by upstream glacial lakes within the catchment, making it highly sensitive to climate-induced hazards such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Over the past decade, urban growth has progressively encroached into the natural flood conveyance zone and alluvial fan of the stream, significantly reducing its capacity to safely accommodate high-magnitude flows. Such land-use changes have altered the natural drainage patterns and increased the exposure of residential and commercial infrastructure to flood hazards.
In the event of a GLOF or extreme precipitation-driven flow, the confined channel and obstructed floodplain could result in sudden overbank flooding, debris flows, and widespread destruction. The scale of potential damage has been substantially amplified by human negligence, weak enforcement of land-use regulations, and the absence of risk-informed urban planning at the governmental level. Despite clear evidence of hazard-prone zones identifiable through satellite imagery and geomorphological indicators, construction activities have continued unchecked. This case highlights how climate change–induced hazards, when combined with unplanned urbanization, can transform natural processes into severe disasters, underscoring the urgent need for stricter regulatory frameworks, hazard zoning, and integration of geospatial analysis into urban development planning.
Evidence from River Swat: Uncontrolled expansion of Bahrain Town along the river
Unregulated urban expansion into the Swat River’s floodplain at Bahrain town has drastically increased flood risk. Satellite images from 2010-2022 show how construction in the riverbed narrowed the channel, directly causing the severe damage during the August 2022 floods. This man-made disaster, not just a natural one, highlights the urgent need for government policies to enforce no-build zones and relocate at-risk structures.
- Problem: Unchecked construction in the Swat River’s floodplain narrowed the channel and increased flood vulnerability at Bahrain town.
- Evidence: 2022 satellite imagery shows that buildings located within the former riverbed were destroyed, demonstrating the direct relationship between river dynamics and structural damage.
- Solution: Governments must enforce strict no-build zones based on science and relocate existing high-risk developments to prevent future disasters.
Satellite imagery proves that unchecked construction in the Swat River’s floodplain directly caused catastrophic 2022 flooding, demanding immediate government action to enforce no-build zones and prevent future development in high-risk areas.
Waterways Geospatial Portal
The Waterways Portal utilizes temporal imaging to monitor urban expansion and verify the removal of structures, enforcing a strict scientific “No-Build Zone” policy.